another big doggie

DaMan--banned · Jul 26, 2011

B.C. +4 ($750)

B.C. is not your ordinary 0-4 team. They have talent, they can score, and they already lost 3 games by single digits. They are slow starters and Winnipeg is kinda like them lately. I just don't see any team getting off to a huge lead. This game could be close from start to finish. BC will turn it around, and this game is huge for them. Perfect situation to start a winning streak. Also, this is another one of those perfect situation for the books to clean up. The sheep will look at the records, and then react accordingly when they see that a 3-1 team is only -4 at home against a 0-4 team. Do I have to mention that many will bet on this game without really watching a CFL game in their lives ? Or without even knowing where Canada is ?

As well as Winnipeg has been playing on defense this season they are stil very bad on offense, as they average only 252 yards per game (last). It's great to have a good defense but at some point, you'll need offense too.

This is also a very bad situation for the Bombers. They are laying points on a short rest after a road dog win, and before facing the biggest surprise and the unbeaten Edmonton next week.

All those who follow CFL know one thing. Winnipeg is a horrible home favorite, especially if laying 4pts or more. They are 3-22 ATS in last 25 when favored at home by 4 points or more.

Extra info:
Underdog is 30-10-1 ats in last 41 Winnipeg games.
Last 3 HTH meetings decided by 3 pts or less, or in overtime.

Sometimes, the totals can tell us a lot...

This is a high total for Winnipeg. Here is where it stands:
53 this week vs BC (Highest of the season for WPG)
52 vs Calgary (Only WPG loss YTD)
51.5 vs HAM (They were supposed to lose big as they were 9 pts dogs)
47 vs TOR (Only favorite game for Winnipeg STD)

Obviously, so far this season there was a clear correlation between lines and totals in Winnipeg games. High totals in games where they were underdogs and low total in the game they were supposed to win.

All of the sudden, they are favored in a game where they have their highest total of the season. If they were a big fave, I would say the line is fishy, WPG will blow EDM out of building. But a 3-1 team is only favored by 4 at home against a winless team, and that means that linemakers want as many WPG backers as possible.

CFL record 1-0 + $1,000

mpacman · Jul 27, 2011

early consensus indicates that money is on BC at 70% base on SIA sportsbook(canadian sportsbook).

1sob · Jul 27, 2011

one of winnipeg coaching staff passed away today. He passed out at the facility then later was pronounced dead.
winnipeg players and staff will have a heavy heart.. condolences to the family

DaMan--banned · Jul 27, 2011

in my long betting career i have witnessed a number of situations where a team had to play after a similar loss. more often than not these teams played inspired games but also, more often then not, they were on the losing side. remember, this is a short week for them, and that whole situation makes their week even shorter now. this line went down from -4 to -3 for a reason.

DaMan--banned · Jul 28, 2011

I'm aware that many on this forum will tell me (again) that Saskatchewan sucks, that they have no chance against Calgary, and so on...Yet, I will risk a big amount of money on Riders again.

SSK +3 (buy half pt) $1200 to win $1000
First of all, before anyone calls me crazy because I'm risking my money on a 1-3 team, I will tell you that Calgary is just a .500 team this season, and a team that went 4-5 in their final 9 games in 2010. So, in my book, we have two average teams here, and not one good and one bad team.

Calgary's 2-2 record came against teams with combined record of 8-8. Their two wins came against WPG (worst offense in the league) and against B.C. (worst defense in the league).

Saskatchewan is 1-3 and their opponents this season have a combined record of 12-4. Saskatchewan already faced Montreal twice (co-leader in the East and two time defending CFL champs) and Edmonton (unbeaten, leader in the West).

Saskatchewan got a new life with their win in Montreal. Montreal lost only 4 home games in last three seasons and those 4 teams that won in Montreal went 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in their following game winning by over 16 ppg and covering by over 14.5 ppg.
Calgary played 4 extremely close games so far this season and they could be tired, already, especially after playing catch-up football in last two games, almost from start to end.

the x-factor:
Calgary has 7 turnovers and 27 penalties in two road games this season. That's one big reason to worry going on the road to face a team with one of the biggest home field advantage in the CFL. Saskatchewan is 16-4 ATS in last 20 at home when getting the points. You'll have to dig deep into Saskatchewan history to find the year when they had a losing record at home. Expect this great home team to pick up their first win at home this week.